概率论在汽车零部件寿命预测中的应用

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中图分类号：U464.13 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1003-8639（2025）10-0121-03

【Abstract】The actual service life of auto parts under seemingly similar service conditions is also different， showingobviousrandomnes，whichistheresultof thecombinationofthematerialof thepart itself，theload，the environment and thesmallvariables in the manufacturing proces.Asa mathematical tool specializing in the studyof the internal quantitativelawsofrandom phenomena，probabilitytheory provides ascientificwaytodescribethis"probability of diferentoutcomes"，whichcan helpunderstand that not allpartsfail inthe same way，and providesatheoretical basis for predicting the possibilityof partsfailing inaspecific periodof time.Therefore，thispaper discusses how to use he basic principlesofprobabilitytheoryandvarious statistical models toanalyzethelifedataofauto partsandconstructa morerealisticpredictionmethod，inorder tocalculatethereliabilityofcomponentfailuremore effctivelyandimprovethe accuracy of prediction.

【Key words】probability theory；auto parts；life prediction

0 引言

为了保证汽车的安全性和可靠性，并对汽车的维护进行有效控制，关键是要对汽车的关键部件的寿命进行预测。（剩余4313字）