供应链风险是否影响农业企业的劳动雇佣决策？

——基于涉农上市企业的数据分析

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DOI：10.13733/j.jcam.issn.2095-5553.2026.03.045

关键词：供应链风险；信贷；交易成本；投资转移；劳动力结构中图分类号：F323.3 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-5553（2026）03-0352-09

Does supply chain risk affect labor hiring decisions in agricultural enterprises ： Evidence from agricultural-related listed companies

XiongYonglian’，ZhangMeng²，Zhang Yufu³，LiMing （1. School of Economics，Changzhou University，Changzhou，213159，China；2. Nanjing Instituteof Agricultural Mechanization，Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs， Nanjing， 21ool4，China; 3.BusinessSchool，NanjingUniuersity，Nanjing，2loo93，China）

Abstract：Prolonged lockdowns and conflicts have made supply chain disruptions commonplace. Accurately assessing thesupplychainrisksofagricultural enterprisesandtheiremployment efects iscrucialforstabilizing agricultural development.This paper uses textual analysis of annual reports from listedagricultural enterprises from 2007 to2O23 toconstruct a supply chain risk indicator for theseenterprises and examines its impact on their labor employment as wellas theunderlying mechanisms.Thefindings reveal that supplychain risks significantly inhibit labor employment in agricultural enterprises，primarily through three channels：reducing theircredit scale，increasing transaction costs，and diverting investments away from thereal economy.Furthermore，these risks mainlysupress labor employmentin private enterprises andfirms located in centraland western regions.Based onthese findings，this paper proposes policies focusing on three areas： building a modern agricultural supply system，implementing financial policy incentives，andleveraging big dataapplications toenhancethe employmentresilience ofagricultural supply chains.

Keywords：supply chain risks；credit；transaction costs；investment diversion；labor structure

0 引言

全球化以来，长期稳定的跨国跨区域供应链降低了跨国企业的生产成本，也为中国企业带来了前所未有的发展机遇，刺激企业扩张规模、增加劳动雇佣，带动各行业的劳动力就业。（剩余15162字）