劳动力价格上涨对玉米和水稻生产技术选择的影响研究

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中图分类号：F326.1 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-5553（2025）08-0324-12

Abstract：After2OO4，China'slaborpricesshowedanupwardtrend.Thistrendwillinevitablyinfluencefarmersto gradually transition fromlaborintensivetraditionalproductionmethodstolaborsavingproductiontechnologies.Current researchonthistopicfocusesonreplacing laborwithagriculturalmachinery，whilestudiesonotheragricultural technologiesand technologyoptionsremain limited.Using199—2023provincial panel data，thisresearchexamines changes in input price，input volumes，andsubstitutionelasticityof agricultural production factors beforeandafter the labor price increase in 2OO4，therebyoutlining theevolutionof grain production technology choices in China.Theresults showthat although the risein labor prices has prompted China's grain production to adopt“mechanical technology”， overall，grain productiontechnologyin Chinaremainsprimarily basedon“biologicaland chemical technology”， supplementedby“mechanical technology".Thissituationmayresult inexcessive fertilizerusage.Therefore，China should prioritizeresearchand promotionoffertilizer application technologies that minimizeenvironmental polution inthe “biologicalandchemicaltechnology”field.Inthe“mechanicaltechnology”field，itisessentialtoactivelypromotetheuse of small-scale machineryand cross-regionalagricultural machineryservices tomitigate costpressure in the future. Keywords：labor price；corn；rice；agricultural technology selection；input substitution elasticity；translog cost function

0 引言

2004年中国首次出现“民工荒”，之后全国劳动力价格上涨显著。（剩余18392字）