农业技术进步对农业碳排放的影响研究

——基于空间溢出效应与衰减边界的视角

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中图分类号：F323；X322 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-5553（2025）07-0335-11

Abstract：Low-carbon developmentofagricultureisesentialforChinatoachieveits“dualcarbon”goal，withtechnological progress inagriculture serving as a critical driving force.Using panel data from 3O provinces in China spanning from 2005 to 2023，thisstudy employeda spatial Durbinmodel toexamine thespatial spilover effectsandatenuation boundaries of agricultural technological progresson carbonemissions inagriculture.Italsoexplored theunderlying mechanismsandregionaldisparitiesintheseeffects.Thefindingsindicate thatprovincialagricultural carbon emission intensity in Chinaexhibitsclearspatial agglomeration patterns，characterizedby“high-high”and“lowlow”clusters.Technologicaladvancements inagriculturenotonlyreducelocalcarbonemision intensitybutalsocontributeto emissionreductionsinneighboring regionsthroughspatial splloverefects.Both frontieragriculturaltechnological innovationandoverall technicalefciencypositivelyimpactcarbonemisionreductioninlocalandadjacentareas，with frontierinnovationplaying thedominantrole.However，theefectof technological progressvariessignificantlyacross regions.Intheeasternprovinces，thedirectemision-reducingefectispronounced，butthespatialspillovereffectisrelatiely weak.Conversely，inthecentralandwesternregions，althoughanegativespatialcorrelationexists，theimpactofagricultural technologyonemisionreductionisnotstatisticallysignificant.ThespatialspilovereffectfollowedaninvertedU-shaped pattern with the increase of distance，which gradually increased within the range of 400km ，weakened significantly between 400and 700km ，and becamenegligiblebeyond 700km .These results highlight the need to strengthen research， development，andthewidespreadadoptionofagriculturaltechnologies，eliminatebarriers totechnologydifusion，optimize thespatial alocationof technologicalandresourceinputs，and implementregion-specificemissionreduction strategies to effectively promote low-carbon development across China's agricultural sector.

Keywords：agricultural technologicalprogress；agriculturalcarbonemisions；spatialspilovereffect；spatial attenuation boundary

0 引言

当前，全球变暖已成为威胁人类生存与发展的严峻挑战之一，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会曾警示，气温升高 1.5°C 将是关键节点[]。（剩余17862字）