南方涛动指数与热带大洋暖池的相关分析

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作者简介 张小龙（1994—），男，陕西高桥人，助理工程师，主要从事天气预报与台风研究工作。

收稿日期 2023-07-15

Correltion Analysis between Changes of Southern Oscillation Index and Tropical Ocean Warm Pool

Zhang Xiao-long et al（Meteorological Bureau， Shaanxi Yan’an，Yanan， Shaanxi 716100）

Abstract In this paper， the annual variations of the Southern Oscillation Index and the Tropical Ocean Warm Pool were analyzed by using the data of the 1982～2016 year Southern Oscillation Index and the SST of the Tropical Indian Ocean and Tropical Pacific. The correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index and the area and intensity of the Warm Pool were also discussed for the study of southern oscudes and tropical ocean warm pools. The results show， the area and the intensity of the Tropical Oceanic Warm Pool were increasing. The trend rates were 13.717 grid /a and 0.007 ℃/a respectively. The area and the intensity of the warm pool have periodic changes of 26～28 a， 20～22 a and 28 a， 20 a respectively. The Southern Oscillation Index had an upward trend with a trend rate of 0.018/a， with periodic changes of 16～18 a and 7～8 a. The Southern Oscillation Index was negatively correlated with the warm pool area in the same month. The Southern Oscillation Index in April， May and July to November had a good lag negative correlation with the area of the Tropical Ocean Warm Pool for the next 2～10 months.

Key words Southern Oscillation Index; Warm Pool Area; Warm Pool Temperature; Correlation Analysis

摘要 利用1982—2016年南方涛动指数和热带印度洋-太平洋海表面温度（Sea Surface Temperature，SST）的资料，分析了南方涛动指数和热带大洋暖池的年际变化特征，探讨了南方涛动指数与暖池面积和强度的相关关系，为南方涛动和热带大洋暖池的研究提供参考。（剩余4455字）