影响延边东部气温预报失误的持续性低云过程分析

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作者简介 徐昌龙（1973—），男，吉林和龙人，高级工程师，主要从事天气预报工作。

收稿日期 2023-07-30

Analysis of sustained low cloud processes affecting temperature prediction errors in the eastern part of Yanbian

Xu Chang-long et al（Meteorological Bureau of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture， Yanji， Jilin 133001）

Abstract This article uses conventional observation data and ECMWF reanalysis data to analyze the reasons for the error in predicting the minimum temperature in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture， Jilin Province on the night of December 23， 2022. It is found that after the end of precipitation， although the upper cold vortex has completely moved out， the middle and lower layers still have northeast or north winds， and there is no northwest dry and cold air injection， resulting in high humidity in the middle and lower layers and cloudy or cloudy sky conditions， Not conducive to nighttime surface longwave radiation cooling; The temperature advection during this process is weak， and sustained low clouds and surface winds have played a crucial role in almost no decrease in nighttime temperature; Under the background of not being well cleared of near ground humidity， combined with weak upward motion and stable atmospheric stratification， low clouds are maintained; Under the influence of terrain factors， sinking and warming are conducive to an increase in temperature in the eastern part of Yanbian. The rise of moist air reaches saturation and forms clouds， promoting the stable maintenance of cloud bodies in front of the mountains. At the same time， it also increases the wind power in the eastern part of Yanbian， making it difficult for the temperature to drop.

Key words Temperature; Sustainability; Low clouds; Atmospheric stratification; Sinking warming

摘要 利用常规观测资料和ECMWF再分析资料，分析2022年12月23日夜间吉林省延边朝鲜族自治州最低气温预报失误的原因。（剩余4882字）

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