河北省畜禽养殖甲烷排放时空特征、驱动因素及与农业经济的脱钩分析

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关键词：畜禽养殖；甲烷排放；时空特征；驱动因素；农业经济；脱钩分析；河北省

中图分类号：X511 文献标识码：A

文章编号：0439-8114（2025）08-0085-06

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.08.013

Spatial and temporal characteristics，driving factors，and decoupling analysis with agricultural economy of methane emissions from livestock and poultry farming in Hebei Province

ZUOWei-kun，WANGChun-bo，ZHAO Wei-chang，GAO Peng-yuan， LIANG Dai-song，SI Lei，LIU Wei，LI Xu-liang （GeologicalSurveTeam，HebeiCoalfieldGeologicalBureau（HebeiUndergroundCoalGasifitoResearchCenter），Xingtai4ebe China）

Abstract：Taking HebeiProvinceas theresearcharea，the methaneemissonsfromthelivestockand poultryfarmingfrom2013to 2022wereestimatedusingtheemisionfactormethodspecifiedintheGuidelinesforCompilingProvincial GrenhouseGas Inventories. Thespatialandtemporalvariationcharacteristics，drivingfactors，anddcouplingelationshipwithagriculturaleconomyofregional methaneemisions wereexploredusingthecentroidmodel，LMDIfactordecompositionmodel，andTapiodecouplingmodel.Theresultsshowedthat，from2O13to2O22，theannualmethaneemisionsfrom livestockandpoultryfarminginHebeiProvincereached 482700 to706OOtons，andtheemissionsshowedanoveraltrendoffrstincreasingandthendecreasing.Themethaneeissons reachedthepeak in2O15，andthendeclinedandgraduallstabilized.In2022，methaneemissionsfromlivestockandpoultryfaring decreasedto54160Otons.From 2013 to2022，thegravitycenterofmethaneemissionsfromlivestockand poultryfarming in Hebei Provincewas mainlylcatedintheXiong'anNewArea，andthegravitycenterwasgenerallyshifting northward.Among thedrivingfactors，agriculturalproductioneficiency，griculturalproductionstructure，andpopulationsizeexertedaniibitoryectoethane emisions，withagriculturalproductionfciencyshowingthemostsignficantinibition.Incontrast，thelevelofeconomicdevelopment promotedmethaneemissions.From2O13to022，therelationshipbetween methaneemissonsfromlivestockandpoultryfarming andtheagriculturaleconomyinHebeiProvincehadgonethrough fourstates，withstrongdecouplingbeing the maintrend.From2018 to2020，Hebei enteredastageof strongdecoupling，withnegativegrowth inmethaneemissionsandpositive growthinagrultural economy.

Key words：livestock and poultryfarming；methaneemissions；spatialand temporalcharacteristics；driving factors；agricultural economy;decoupling analysis；Hebei Province

温室气体浓度的攀升，尤其是甲烷（ CH4 与二氧化碳（ CO2 ）的显著增加，加剧了干旱、高温等极端气候现象[1，2]，尽管大气中甲烷含量低于二氧化碳，但其20年内增温潜力是二氧化碳的86倍，这对区域农业经济和气候环境构成了严峻挑战。（剩余9475字）