山西省粮食生产时空演变及驱动力分析

打开文本图片集

关键词：粮食作物；粮食生产；时空演变；驱动力；山西省中图分类号：F326.11 文献标识码：A文章编号：0439-8114（2025）07-0213-10DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.07.037开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of grain production in Shanxi Province

HANXiao-ying，YINHai-shan，LIWen-ting，WANGJing，GAOYang （College of Agricultural Economicsand Management，Shanxi Agricultural University，TaiyuanO3Oo06，China）

Abstract：ThisstudysystematicallanalyzedthespatiotemporalevolutionanddrivingfactorsofgainproductioninShanxiProvince byemployingthegravitycentermigration model，logarithmic meandivisiaindex（LMDI），exploratoryspatialdataanalysis（ESDA）， andgreycorrelationanalysis，with114Counties（Cities，Districts）inShanxiProvinceasresearchunits.Theresultsshowedhatthe plantingareaofgraincropsexhibited minorfluctuationsin Shanxi Provincefrom2Oo5 to2O21.Thegravitycentersofbothyieldand plantingareaforgraincrops（cereals，legumes，ndubers）shiftednorthwardwithvaryingdegresduring thestudyperiod.Coldspots andsub-coldspotsofgraincropsandcerealyieldsshoweddereasingtrends，whilehotspotsandsub-hotspotsdisplayedcreasing trendsfrom2005to2O21.Bothcold/sub-coldspotsandhot/sub-hotspotsoftuberandlegumeyieldsdemonstratedincreasing trends. Theyield increaseofcerealsasprimarilyatributedtoexpandedcultivationareas，whereaslegumeyielddclineresultedfromeduced per-unit productityorcultivationareas，nd tuberyielddecreasewas mainlycausedbydiminishedcultivationareas.Keyexteraldriversaectinggraincrops（ereals，legumes，ndtubers）yieldsincludedruralelectricityconsumption，fertilizerapliation，efectiveiigationarea，totalpopulation，andmechanizedfamingarea.TonhancesustainabledevelopmentandsupplydemandbalanceofgraincropsproductioninShanxiProvince，recommendations includedreducingnon-agriculturaloccupationofrland，improving land quality，upgrading agricultural infrastructure，and optimizing subsidy mechanisms.

Key Words： grain crops； grain production；spatiotemporal evolution；driving forces； Shanxi Province

粮食生产能力是衡量一个国家粮食安全的核心指标。（剩余8960字）