基于D-S系统脆性识别供应链风险因子方法

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中图分类号：F274 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.24.022

Abstract：Thesuply chainisconsideredacomplexsystem.Toexplore theimpact ofspecificeventsonthebritlenessof supplychainsystems，introducingtheDempstercombinationruleofD-Sevidenceteorycanmoreaccuratelyestimatetheprobability ofeventsoccurrng，therebyidentifyingthemaininfluencingfactorsthattriggerbritlenesssks.Inthetheoryofcomplexsystem's britleness，theprobabilityofeventsoccurrngisthbasisforsudyingthoverallbritleneoftesystm.Basdonteepster combinationrule，britlenessfactorsaretreatedasevidencetoestimatetheprobabilityofeventsocurring.Moreover，basedon theset pairanalysistheory，thebritlenessrelationshipsbetweesubsystemsintesupplychainsystemareanalyzed，andthen combinedwithentropytheorytoobtaintheoverallbritlenessofthesuplychainsystem.Furthermore，theweightsoffactors affecting suplychin'sbritlenesareevaluatedthroughFuzzyAnalyticHerarchy Process （FAH），identifingtheaininfluecing factorstoprovideabasisforpreventingtheoccurrenceofbritlenessrisks.Troughcaseanalysis，thepracticaltyandfectivenes of the model are verified.

KeyWords：complexsystems;supplychainbritleness;D-Sevidencetheory;entropytheory;FuzyAnalyticHierarchyroce

0引言

我国提出“健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度”，随着新一轮科技革命的到来，确保供应链安全稳定运行已成为时代发展的必然要求。（剩余9539字）