基于组合预测模型的物流需求预测研究

——以山西省为例

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中图分类号：F252 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.24.003

Abstract：Asa keynationalenergyandmanufacturing hub，ShanxiProvincehasshoulderedimportanttasksduringthe14th Five-YearPlanperiod.Withtheupcoming15thFive-YearPlan，acuratelogisticsdemandforecastingisvitalforoptimizing resourcesdistributionandsupportingeconomictransformation.Toadressupply-demandimbalancesfrominadequateforecasting， thisstudycombines theentropymethod，BPneuralnetworks，anddoubleexponentialsmothing intoacombined model，using Shanx'slogistics marketasacasestudy.Resultsshowasteadygrowthinlogistics demandbutaslowing pace.Therefore， Shanxishouldoptimizeitseconomicstructure，bostconsumption，deepencooperationwithBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei，theCentral Plains Economic Zoneandother regions，and improve logistics network planning to support sustainable regional growth. Keywords：BP neuralnetwork;doubleexponential smothing;logisticsdemand prediction; Shanxi Province; entropy weightmethod

0引言

“十五五”规划即将启动，山西省作为全国重要的能源基地和制造业大省，其物流需求预测对支撑区域经济高质量发展具有重要意义。（剩余10197字）