基于CMIP6模式的黑龙江省未来极端降水变化趋势分析

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中图分类号：P426.6 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-2945（2025）28-0086-05

Abstract：Inordertoexplorethechangetrendoffutureextremeprecipitationin HeilongjiangProvince，theQMdeviation correctionmethodwasusedtocorecttheCMIP6dailyprecipitationsimulationresultsusingthebaseperiodfrom1961to2000， andthespatio-temporalchangetrendsofprecipitation，CDD，SDandR95pextreepreipitationindexinHeilongiangProvince under SSP126，SSP245，and SSP585scenarios inthenear future（2023-2060）andlong term（2061-2100）wereanalyzed.The resultsshowthatthesimulatedprecipitationvaluescorectedbyQMmethodareclosertothemulti-yearaverageandspatial distributinofthemeasuredprecipitationvalues.Throughoutthefutureperiod，precipitation，SDandR95pindexincreased significantlyforallscenarios，andthegrowthrateincreasedwithincreasingforcingscenarios.Theincreaseinprecipiationis mainlyinthesouthemandSanjiangPlainareas，theriskofdroughtincreasesinthewesternregion，andtheriskofflood increases in the eastern region.

Keywords： climate change;extreme precipitation；bias correction； Heilongjiang Province; CMIP6 model

全球气候变暖加剧，极端降水事件频率和强度显著增加，成为重要环境问题。（剩余5213字）