APSIM模型在川中丘陵区玉米产量模拟的适用性研究

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中图分类号：S513 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-9902（2025）22-0044-04

Abstract：Globalwarmingposesaseriousthreattothestabilityofagriculturalproduction，sotheaccuracyofagricultural systemmodelsiscrucialtocropproductionmanagement.TakingcornproductioninhillyareasofcentralSichuanasanobject， theAPSIMmodelwassystematicallyconstructedandcalibratedtoevaluateitsappicabilityundercomplexmeteorological conditions.Basedondailymeteorologicaldata，soilparametersandfeldmanagementpracticesfrom2013to2O17inDeyang City，themodelparameterswereoptimized，focusingonverifyingthemodelssimulationaccuracyoncornyield.Theresults showedthat：TheAPSIMmodelcalibratedbythe"trialanderrormethod"cansimulatecomyieldsinthehillyareasofcentral Sichuanwith highaccuracy.Theroot-mean-squareerror（RMSE）betweenthesimulatedvaluesandthemeasuredvalues inthe Statistical Yearbook is 55.61kg⋅hm-2 ，the coefficient of determination （R2） is greater than O.6，and the mean absolute percentage error（MAPE）isonly 0.519% .Especially，the simulated values in 2O17 are completely consistent with the actual yields， confirming thereliabilityofthemodelonregionalscalesandlong-timeseries.Furthersensitivityanalysisofthemodelwas carried out，and temperature ±2qC ），precipitation（ ±20% ）andsoil pH （±0.5）were included in four sets of disturbance scenarios. Theresultsshowedthattheaverageanualtemperaturehadthemostsignificantimpactonyield（averagesensitvityindex （20 SI =0.37），while soil PH had no significant response within the ±1 disturbance range. This study can provide scientific reference for precise management of comn production and climate change scenario simulation in hilly areas of central Sichuan.

Keywords：APSIM model;hillyregion incentral Sichuan;corn yield;trialand error method;sensitivity

在全球气候变化的背景下，农业可持续发展面临着前所未有的挑战。（剩余5165字）