“双碳”目标下吉林省农业碳排放影响因素及情景预测

——基于STIRPAT模型和支持向量回归模型

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关键词：农业碳排放；扩展STIRPAT模型；支持向量回归；情景模拟；吉林省

中图分类号：F323.22 文献标识码：A 文章编号：2095-5553（2025）12-0355-08

Abstract：Agriculturalcarbon emisionreduction isoneof themain measures toachieveChina's“dualcarbon”goal.In this paper，theagriculturalcarbonemisionsofJilinProvincefrom 2Oooto 2022werecalculated basedontheIPCCcarbon emissio coeficient method，taking the greenhouse gas emissonsources of agricultural production inputs，rice planting， andanimal husbandryasdata samples.UsingtheSTIRPATextended model，various factorsaffecting agriculturalcarbon emissions in Jilin Province were analyzed.A support vector machine regresion （SVR）model was established to predict theagriculturalcarbonemissonsand theirchangetrendsunderdiferent scenariosinJinProvincefrom 2O23 to2030.The resultsshowed that：from 2O0l to 2022，Jilin'sagricultural carbon emisions generallyshowedanupwardand downward trend，reaching a peak of 38 212.2kt in 2008，and the carbon emission intensity showed a downward trend，with an average annual decline rate of 5.52% .Every 1% change in rural population，per capita agricultural GDP，agricultural mechanizationlevel，urbanizationrate，percapitanetincomeoffarmers，rural investment，andagriculturaloutputvalue ratio will cause changes of 0.232% ， 0.212% ， 0.125% ， -0.094% ， 0.105% ， 0.807% and -0.087% of agricultural carbonemissions inJilinProvince，respectively.Underthebaseline，low-carbonandstrong low-carbonscenarios，the agriculturalcarbonemissions inJilinProvince from 2O23 toO3Owillcontinue todecline，andthe predictedvalues by 030 will be 33840.5kt，33289.9kt and 33002.9kt ，respectively. The results show that Jilin Province has made some progress in greenandlow-carbonagriculture inrecent years，and has basicallyachievedthepeak ofcarbonemisions n the agricultural sector，but in the future，corresponding measures should be taken to promote the developmentof green agriculture according to the actual situation to accelerate the realization of the province's“double carbon” goal.

Keywords：agricultural carbonemissions；extending the STIRPATmodel；support vectorregression；scenario simulation；Jilin Province

0 引言

人类生产活动使 CO2 等温室气体排放量增加，进而导致全球气候变暖。（剩余14261字）