基于GM（1,1）灰色预测模型的西藏自治区物流需求中长期预测

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中图分类号：F272 文献标志码：ADOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.17.007

Abstract： The development of the modern logistics industry is of great significance and strategic impact for the Xizang Autonomous Region to accelerate regional economic construction anddeeplyparticipate in the domesticand international dual cycles. Based on this，making accurate medium-to-long-term predictions ofthe logistics demand in the Xizang Autonomous Region can provide references for relevant departments to reasonably anticipate the possible future changing trends of the logistics industry in the Xizang Autonomous Region，and has important practical significance. The article establishes a GM （1，1） grey prediction model based on the actual data of the goods turnover in the Xizang Autonomous Region from 2013 to 2021，and the simulation accuracy reaches the highest level 1.The research resultsshow that the logistics demand inthe Xizang Autonomous Region has been continuously rising since 2013，and it is expected to continue to maintain an increasing trend duringthe "14th Five-Year Plan" period and the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

Key words： Xizang Autonomous Region; logistics demand; GM（1，1）model

0引言

西藏自治区地处我国西南边陲，是青藏高原联系国内其他地区和我国联通南亚地区的重要门户，地缘优势突出。（剩余4406字）