灰色PSO-BP在废旧手机回收量预测的应用及空间分布研究

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中图分类号：F272 文献标志码：ADOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.17.005

Abstract： This study utilizes Fujian Province as a case to examine the forecasting andspatial distribution of waste mobile phone recycling. To enhance the accuracy of mobile phone ownership predictions，a grey PSO-BP prediction model was developed， integrating the grey prediction model GM（1，1），BP neural network， and particle swarm optimization algorithm. A seriesmethod was employed to forecast the volume of mobile phone recycling in Fujian Province from 2O22 to 2O26， incorporating consumption and usage models. Regarding spatial distribution， utilizing regional population and GDP data， an entropy weight method was applied to analyze the spatial dynamicsof mobile phone recycling. The findings indicate that the predictive accuracy of the grey PSO-BP combined model surpasses that of the BP neural network alone， thereby affirming its reliabilityand applicability.From 2022 to 2026，mobilephonerecycling volumes in Fujian Province are projected to exhibit an upward trend， peaking at approximately 614 OoO units in 2023， Fuzhou and Quanzhou Cities are expected to account for over 100000 units each. Timely measures should be implemented to address waste mobile phones effectively while promoting resource reuse and safeguarding ecological integrity.

Key words： old mobile phones; BP neural network; particle swarm optimization; spatial distribution

0引言

手机回收量的精准预测对于废旧手机回收再利用起着重要作用，决定了其逆向物流网络构建的合理性。（剩余6832字）