多源数据时空耦合的台风灾害动态风险评估

——以1816号“贝碧嘉”为例

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中图分类号：P954 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-2945（2025）31-0065-（

Abstract：Thestudytook Severe Tropical StormBebinca（No.1816）asanobjectandcomprehensivelyusedbuferzone analysis，standarddeviationelipticalmodel，spatio-temporalgeographicalweightedregresionandothermethodstorevealthe spatial differentiation laws of typhoon disaster risks.The research results show that ①the risk of disaster-causing factors decreasesalong acoast-inland gradient，with coastal areas such as Zhanjiang and Haikou being the highest; ② the sensitivity of thedisaster-proneenvironmentisdominatedbyterrin，andthesensityofthemountainousandhillyareasofMaomingand Yangjiang is prominent; ③ the vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodiesshows apattern of "serious economic losses in cities and obvious ecological disasters in rural areas"; ④ thedisaster resistance shows a "core-edge" differentiation. The Pearl River Delta relieson economic resilience to build a multi-level disaster prevention system; ⑤ the risk assessment results show： The highriskareasareconcentratedinZhaoqing City，GuangdongProvince，formingextremeriskfocusesduetothesuperpositionof typhoonpaths，populationandeconomicdensityandterrainsensitivity;thesecond-highest-riskareascovereconomicconcentration zonessuchasZhanjiangandMaoming;thelow-riskareasarerepresentedbytheentireislandofHainanandbenefitfromthe scattered impact of typhoons and low population density.

Keywords：spatio-temporalgeographicalweightedegresionmodel;GIStechnology；buferzone;standarddeviationeipse; risk assessment

随着全球气候变化的加剧，台风活动的规律和影响范围正逐渐发生变化，而我国作为世界上遭受台风影响最为严重的国家之一[-4，台风灾害方面的研究更为深人。（剩余9023字）