气温对空调保有量影响的研究

——以贵州省为例

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中图分类号：P423 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-2945（2025）27-0115-05

Abstract：Exploring thecorelation between thenumberofairconditionersin Guizhouregionandaverage temperature， extremehightemperature，percapitadisposableincome，etc.Using temperaturemonitoringdatafromGuizhou Provinceandair conditionigownershipdataper10Ourbanhouseholds，Pearsoncorrelationanalyssandcorelationsignificancetestwereconducted. The results show that the average temperature in Guizhou Province ison the rise，reaching a maximum of 16.8 C in 2023.The numberofairconditionersper10Ohouseholdsisalsoontherise，reachingapeakof50.86unitsper10Ohouseholdsin2022. Thecorelationbetweenthenumberofairconditionersper1OOhouseholdsandtheaveragetemperatureisnothigh，andtereis onlyamoderatetoweakcorelationbetweentheprovinceand Zunyi City.Theaveragenumberofdayswiththehighest temperature exceeding 30 C in Guizhou Province is on therise，reaching 71.6 days in 2O23; There is no significant trend in the daily average maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C ，and it reached its highest point in 2O22，reaching 17.4 days.The number of days with an average maximum temperature above and 35°C has a good correlation with the number of air conditioning units，withbothcorelationsinQiannanPrefecturebeingextremelystrong.After2O15，therewasastrongpositivecorelation between the number of air conditioning units and the number of days with an average maximum temperature above 30 C ，with a corrlationcoeffientofuptO.90.Thecorelatonbetweentheownershipofairconditionersandpercapitadisposableincomeis good，withtrongcoelationsoservedinallsearchregions.Teinceaseinprcapitadisposableincomeandextreehigh temperatures may be the biggest factors that trigger urban residents to purchase air conditioning.

Keywords： temperature; air conditioner； correlation analysis； inventory；guizhou Province

气候变化持续加剧，有关极端气温变化的观测事实研究表明，全球整体在1960—2018年期间暖日（夜）增加、冷日（夜）减少，极端最低（最高）气温升高，几乎所有大陆地区的冷夜数显著减少[1-，1951—2019 年中国年平均气温呈升高趋势，升幅为 0.24∘C/10a ，明显高于全球平均水平3]。（剩余5950字）