南疆典型棉花主产区棉花产量分离的最优方法选择

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中图分类号：S162 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-9902（2025）23-0052-05

Abstract：Toexploretheoptimal methodforseparatingthelong-termtimeseriesofcotonyieldinthemaintypicalcotonproducingareasofsouthernXinjing.Thisstudyselectedcottonyielddata，growthperiodandcorespondingground meteorologicaldatafromtheAlarmaintypicalcotton-producingareasofsouthernXinjiangfrom1990to2O20.Double exponentialsmothing，theHodrick-Prescottfilter，3-yearmovingaverage，5-yearmovingaverage，andfive-pointquadratic smothingmethodswereapliedtoseparatethecottonyieldintheinAlarmaintypicalcotton-producingareasof southern Xinjiang.Theseparatedcotontrendyieldandclimaticyieldwerethenverifiedandtestedusingtheconsistentcorelation coeficient，thestandarddeviationofclimaticield，andmultiplestepwiseregresionTheresultsshowedthatdoubleexponential smothing，theHodrick-Prescottfiter，3-yearmovingaverage，5-yearmovingaverage，andfive-pointquadraticsmoothing methodscouldallftthecottonyieldtrendsinAlarmaintypicalcotton-producingareasofsouthernXinjiangwell，withthe consistentcorelationcoefficetsreachingexcellntlevels，allaboveO.90.Amongthm，doubleexponentialsmoothinghadthe bestfittingefectThestandarddeviationoftheclimaticcotonyieldinAlarmaintypicalcotton-producingareasofsouthern Xinjiangfitedbydoubleexponentialsmothingwasthesmalest，，whichcouldexplainthereltionshipbetweenfluctuationsin cotonyieldandclimatechangeinthereclamationareaverywellInconclusion，doubleexponentialsmothingwastheoptimal methodforseparatingcoton trendyieldand climaticyield inAlarmaintypicalcotton-producingareasof southern Xinjiang.

Keywords：coton;trendyield;climateyield;separationmethod;main coton-producingareasinsouthem Xinjiang

作物产量的高低是由品种遗传特性、田间管理措施和生态气候因子综合作用的结果I。（剩余6575字）