中国西瓜生产波动特征及增产贡献因素研究

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中图分类号：S651 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673-2871（2025）09-233-12

Research on the fluctuation characteristics and contributing factors to yield increase of watermelon production in China

Abstract：Clarifyingtheevolutionary patterns of watermelonproduction fluctuationsand thecauses of yield increase can helppromote theoptimal layoutof watermelon productionand enhance the benefitsof industrialdevelopment.Basedon the models suchas H-Pfiltering methodand Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI），thefluctuation characteristics， contributingfactorsand causes of watermelon production in China.Theresultsshowed that：（1）From1978 to2022，the overallfluctuation cycle of watermelon production in China showed the characteristicsof accelerated fluctuationperiod， shortenedfluctuation duration，andreducedamplitude.（2）From 2000 to2022，the productionof watermelon in the Northwest production areaand the YangtzeRiver Basin production area showed the most significant increase，and watermelonproductionexhibited significantregionalagglomerationcharacteristics.（3）Themajor contributing factor to the watermelonyieldincreaseatthenationallevelistheincreaseinyieldperunitarea，butattheprovinciallevel，themajority of watermelon production in most provinces showed anarea dominant characteristics.The main influencing factorsof changes in watermelon yieldandplanting areaare therural per capita disposable income，scientificandtechnological funding inputs，andinputsof pesticidesandfertilizers.Thefuture developmentofthe watermelonindustryneeds to adhereto the intensive growth model foucsedon improved yieldperunit area，relying onscientificand technological innovationtocultivatevarieties，improvecultivationpaterns，andreduce thedependenceonpesticidesandfertilizers.

Key Words：Watermelon; China; Production fluctuation; Contribution factors;LMDI model

西瓜在中国具有悠久的栽培历史和广泛的种植区域，中国也是当前世界最大的西瓜生产和消费国。（剩余13064字）