甘肃省河东地区短时强降水分布特征及预报分析

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中图分类号：P456.8 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）21-0105-06

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.21.020

Abstract： [Purposes] By analyzing the distribution characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall in the Hedong region of Gansu Province，conceptual models for diferent circulation patterns are constructed to further enrich the scientific reference for forecasting and warning of such events in this area.[Methods] Based on hourly precipitation data from 1，O83 regional stations in the Hedong region of Gansu Province from 2012 to 2O21，the variation characteristics of short-term heavy rainfallin Hedong overthe past decade were analyzed.[Findings] The results show that short-term heavy rainfallin the Hedong region of Gansu primarily occurs in July and August， with the period from mid-July to mid-August being the most frequent season for such events annually. Over the past decade，the station frequency of short-term heavy rainfall showed an increasing trend in most parts of Hedong，while it exhibited a decreasing trend in Gannan Prefecture.The extremity of heavy rainfall in this region is also increasing.[Conclusions] According to the characteristics of the 5OO hPa circulation field，short-term heavyrainfall processes in Hedong can be classified into four types： northwest airflow type，southwestern airflow type on the periphery of the subtropical high，internal subtropical high type，and low trough type.The positions of low-level shear lines and surface mesoscale convergence lines are key focal points for forecasting the areas affectedbyheavyrainfall.

Keywords：short-term heavy rainfall weather process; spatiotemporal distribution; forecast focus point

0 引言

短时强降水是一种突发性强、降水强度大、持续时间短的天气现象，常引发山洪、泥石流等自然灾害，对人民生命财产安全和社会经济发展造成严重威胁[。（剩余6750字）