财政纵向失衡对地方经济韧性的非线性影响

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中图分类号：F812.7 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-0714（2025）11-0093-05

TheNonlinear Impact of Fiscal Vertical Imbalanceon Local Economic Resilience

ZHAO Qing （SchoolofEconomicsandTrade，ZhongshanInstituteUniversityofElectronicScienceandTechnologyofChina58400， Zhongshan，Guangdong，China）

Abstract：This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear impact of fiscal vertical imbalance on local economic resilience.Throughlempirical analysis of data from 255 prefecture-level and above cities iniChina from2007 to 2022，thestudy findsasignificant U-shaped relationshipbetweenfiscal verticalimbalanceand local economic resilience.Specifically，a moderate level of fiscal vertical imbalance may inhibit theenhancement of local economic resilience. However，when the fiscal vertical imbalance reaches a certain threshold，its negative impact on localleconomic resilience diminishes and may even turn into a positive effect. Based on these findings，the paper proposes a series of policy recommendations，including adjusting and optimizing the fiscal distribution mechanism，strengthening fiscal discipline of local governments， promoting theoptimization and upgrading of industrial structures，and establishing mechanisms for assessing and monitoringlocal economic resilience.

Keywords：Fiscal Vertical Imbalance; Local Economic Resilience;Nonlinear Impact; Urban Economy

一、引言

自改革开放以来，中国经济实现了持续快速增长，并在面对外部冲击时表现出卓越的稳定性，这种强大的“韧性”成为中国经济社会稳步发展的关键因素。（剩余6575字）