中美关税对中国贸易行业有效市场的影响

——基于行为金融理论视角

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中图分类号：F832.5 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-0714（2025）11-0067-04

TheImpact of China-U.S.Tariffson the Effective Markets of China's Trade Industry APerspectiveBasedonBehavioralFinanceTheory

ZHANG Yinong （SchoolofFinance，NankaiUniversity，3ooo71，Tianjin，China）

Abstract：This paper leverages the U.S.-China tariff dispute as a quasi-natural experiment，focusing on the key event when theU.S.government officially implemented the“reciprocal tariffs.”Using an event study methodology，thisresearchinvestigateswhethertheChinesetrademarketcanbeconsideredanefficientmarketinthefaceofsignificantexternal shocks Empir dings suggest that following theimplementationofthetariffpolicy，stockpricesof trade elated exhibitedapersistentdecline， reflectingan overreaction inthe stock market，indicating market inefficiency.In the heterogeneityanalysis，agroup regression based on tariff exposure during the event window revealsno significant differences between groups， suggesting that the stock price fluctuations 0 radefirms particularlythosewhose main businessisnot export-oriented， ect hisfurther corroboratesthe overreaction ofpricestoinformationandthepotentialforherdbehavior.Thisstudyprovidesdirect evidenceforunderstanding the impact ofitariff policies on the efficiency of the trade sector in the market.

Keywords：Efficient Market Hypothesis;Equivalent Tariffs;Efficient Market; Herding Effect;Event Stud Methodology

一、引言与文献综述

2025年4月2日，美国白宫发布《通过互惠关税调节进口，以纠正导致美国商品年度贸易逆差持续扩大的贸易惯例》（《REGULATINGIMPORTSWITHARECIPROCALTARIFFTORECTIFY TRADE PRACTICES THAT CONTRIBUTETOLARGEAND PERSISTENTANNUAL UNITED STATESGOODSTRADEDEFICITS》），宣布对全球180多个贸易伙伴的进口商品征收最低 10% 的“对等关税”，其中对中国加征的关税税率为 34% （叠加此前两次 10% 的关税，总税率达 54% ）。（剩余6022字）