五大城市群经济韧性的测度与评价

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中图分类号：F812 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-0714（2025）10-0116-04

Measurementand Evaluation of Economic Resilience in Five Major Urban Agglomerations

ZHAO Qing （SchoolofEconomicsandTradeZhongshanInstituteUniversityofElectroniccienceandechnologofina8400 Zhongshan，Guangdong，China）

Abstract：This paper quantitativelyanalyzes the economicresilience of five major urban agglomerations： Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei，Yangtze River Delta，Pearl River Delta，Chengdu-Chongqing，andthe Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River.It finds that during the resistance period from 2008to 2010，these urbanagglomerations generally exhibited strong capabilities towithstand external shocks，particularly the Middle Reaches of theYangtzeRiverand Chengdu-Chongqingurbanagglomerations.However，duringtherecoveryperiodfrom2010 to2022，exceptfortheMiddleReachesoftheYangtzeRiver，theeconomicrecoverycapabilitiesofotherurbanagglomerations declined，especiallyinthe Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqingregions.Using shift-sharedecompositiontechniques，this studyrevealsthatindustrial structureand urban competitive nessarekey factors influencing economicresilience.TheMiddle Reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglom eration demonstrated outstanding competitiveness during the recovery period，whilethe Beijing-TianjinHebei region showed improved industrial structure but insufficient competitiveness.Both the Pearl River DeltaandYangtzeRiver Deltaurbanagglomerationsexperiencedimprovementsinindustrialstructurecompo nents but needtoenhance their competitiveness.The Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration performed poorly inbothaspects.Based on these findings，thepaper proposes policyrecommendations aimed at improving the economicresilience of urban agglomerations，promoting balanced regional economic development，and enhancingthecapacitytowithstandexternalshocks.

Keywords：Economic Resilience;Urban Agglomeration；Industrial Structure;Competitiveness

一、引言

在过去四十年中，尽管中国经济发展面临持续的不确定性、市场波动、外部冲击和潜在风险，中国经济依然保持了稳定的增长轨迹，展现出强大的经济“韧性”。（剩余6685字）