基于主成分分析的瓦斯突出危险性评价研究

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中图分类号：TD713 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-2945(2025)29-0097-06

明相林¹，田紫微1*，吴华²,邸成²,赵全超²，李济良²,周铁刚³,李新继³，王海军³,罗延3（1. 610074；2.中铁二院工程集团有限公司,成都 610031；3.京昆高速铁路西昆有限公司，重庆400025）

Abstract:Ingastunnels，gasoutburstriskasessment isanefective measuretopreventcoalandgasoutburstacidents. However,therearemanyindicatorstopredicttheoutstandingrisk，andthesensitivityofdiferentindicatorsisdiferent,which makesthepredictionacuracylow.Basedontheaboveproblems,thispaperusesprincipal componentanalysis(PCA）toevaluate theoutburstriskofgastunnels，analyzesthesensivityofeachpredictorindex，andproposesariskevaluationmodelforgas outburstbasedon principal component analysis.The results show that among the nine selected indicators，the K value of the comprehensiveindexhasthestrongestsensitivityandtheevaluationresultsofthegasoutburstriskoftheestablishedmodelare consistent withtheactual situationofthesite,andtheaccuracyofthemodelinpredictingtheoutbursthazardis 90% ： Comparedwiththetraditionalevaluationmethod,themodelcomprehensivelyconsiderstheinfluenceoftheselectedindicatorson thegasdynamicefect，andtheselectedindicatorsareeasytomeasureandcalculateonsite,andtheacuracyofon-site prediction of outstanding hazards is high,which has engineering application value.

Keywords:gastunnel;riskofcoalandgasoutburst;principalcomponentanalysis;indicatorsensitivity;weightedevaluationodel

由于煤层赋存环境及煤层内部耦合机制复杂，煤与瓦斯突出机理研究仍需进行深入研究，导致判别煤与瓦斯突出的具体位置存在较大的模糊性。（剩余10349字）