基于PLUS-InVEST模型的渭河流域耕地碳储量时空演变及多情景模拟预测

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中图分类号：X171.1;F301.2 文献标志码：A 文章编号:1003-5168(2025)23-0108-08

DOI:10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.23.019

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Carbon Storage in the WeiheRiver Basin Based on PLUS—InVESTModeland MultiScenario Simulationand Prediction

LI Tong (School ofLand Engineering, Chang'an University,Xi'an 71oooo, China)

Abstract: [Purposes] To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land use and its carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin,and to provide a reference for enhancing the carbon sequestration potential of cultivated land under the "dual-carbon" strategic goals.[Methods] Taking the Weihe River Basin as the study area,this research employed methods including the InVEST model and the PLUS model to analyze cultivated land use and its carbon storage from 1990 to 2O20,and to predict cultivated land carbon storage under multiple scenarios for 2O35.[Findings] ① The carbon storage of cultivated land in the Weihe River Basin in 1990,2000,2010,and 2020 was 1020.70×10 )6 t, 1 022.04×10 t, 972.02×10o t, and 943.66 × 10 t,respectively. Over the 3O-year period, the cumulative decrease in cultivated land carbon storage was 72.92 ×106 t,with a net reduction of 10.71×106t attributable to land use changes involvingcultivated land. ② By2O35,under the natural development,cultivated land protection,ecological protection,and urban development scenarios,the projected changes in carbon storage in the Weihe River Basin are -8.36×1061 0.76×1061 ， 5.16×106t ,and -26.85×106 t,respectively. This indicates that protecting cultivated land can also lead to an increase in carbon storage in the study area.[Conclusions] Cultivated land is an ecosystem with high carbon sequestration potential.Implementing cultivated land protection policies,strictly controlling the expansion of construction land into cultivated land, and rationally optimizing the land use structure are conducive to mitigating the loss of carbon storage in the study area.

Keywords: cultivated land use; carbon storage; InVEST model; PLUS model;Weihe River Basin

0 引言

在全球气候变化与“双碳”自标的双重背景下，陆地生态系统的固碳问题成为研究热点。（剩余11754字）