苏里格气田召51区块自动间开井油套压AI时序预测研究

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中图分类号：TP311.1 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-2945（2025）18-0067-04

Abstract：Thewelheadcasing pressureofhighwater-containingtightsandstonegasreservoirinSuligeisanimportant indicatortoreflecttheproductionperformanceofgaswellandformationenergystatus.Inordertoaccuratelypredictthe changesofcasingpressure，ensureeficientproductionofgaswels，andavoidabnormalevents，historicaldataofcasing presure ofautomaticshut-inwelsin Block Zhao51of Sulige GasFieldareselected，andfiveindicatorsincludingRMSE，R， MAE，MBE，andMAPEarecomprehensivelyused toquantitivelyevaluate BP，GA-BP，PSO-BP，RBF，ELM，RF，SVM，CNN， LSTMtheperformanceofthesenineartificialintellgencemodelsinthisblock.Theresultsshowthat，inBlockZhao51，the optimalodelforAItimeseriespredictingoilpresureisRBF，andtheoptimalmodelforAItimeseriespredictingcasing presureisPSO-BP.Itcanpredictthechangeofcasingpressureingaswelsinthenext48hours，anditsgeneralization abilityis5times higherthanthatoftheRFmodelwithpoorcomprehensiveevaluationperformance.Theresearchresultsareof greatsignificanceforimprovingtheaplicabiltyoftecasingpressrepredictionmodelintheblockandgivingfullplaytothe productivity of gas wells.

KeyWords： RBF;PSO-BP;production system optimization; casing pressure prediction; AI timing

苏里格气田召51区块目前有20口气井配备自动化间开设备，需进一步向智能化转型，结合人工智能技术优化生产制度提高采收率。（剩余4119字）