基于SD模型的榆林市资源环境承载力研究

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关键词：系统动力学；SD模型；资源环境承载力；模拟仿真

中图分类号：F124.5；X24 文献标志码：A 文章编号:1003-5168(2025)20-0108-05

DOI:10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.20.021

Research on the Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity of Yulin CityBasedonSystemDynamicsModel

YUAN YangyangWU Jinhua (Chang'an University,Xi'an ,China)

Abstract:[Purposes] This study investigates the resource and environmental carying capacity (RECC) and explores the relationship between the state of resources/environment and socio-economic development.Itaims to provideareference for the scientific and rational utilization of resources and for promoting the coordinated development of society and the ecological environment.[Methods] Taking Yulin City as the research object,this study employed a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to delineate subsystems and construct a System Dynamics (SD） model for the study area. The dynamic changes of the RECC under five different scenarios were explored.[Findings]From 2O21 to 2035,the overall RECC of Yulin City shows a fluctuating upward trend. However, the carrying capacity index varies under different socio-economic development models. The carrying capacity under the status quo continuation model starts at an intermediate level but increases rapidly.The carrying capacity under the economy-prioritizing model initially ranks second among the five scenarios but increases slowly.The environmentally friendly model has a significant influence on the RECC.The carrying capacities of the comprehensive coordination model and the resource-conserving model generally remain at relatively low levels.[Conclusions] The simulation results indicate that the environmental protection development model and the status quo continuation development model are most conducive to enhancing the future RECC of Yulin City.

Keywords: system dynamics; SD model; resource and environm ental carrying capacity

0 引言

资源环境是可持续发展的物质基础和先决条件。（剩余6341字）