基于VAR模型的农业现代化影响因素的实证研究

——以四川省为例

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：F323 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2096-9902（2025）18-0033-05

Abstract：BasedonrelevanttimeseriesdataofChina'sagriculturalmoderizationanditsinfluencingfactorsfrom2Oto 2023，avectorautoregresivemodelisconstructedtostudytheshort-termrelationshipbetwnSichuan'sagricultural modernizationandinfluencingfactors.Atthesametime，aco-integrationmodelisconstructedbasedontheresultsofcointegratinandGrangertests，soastoexplainthelong-termco-integrationrelationshipbetweenthem.Theresearchresultsshow thatintheshortterm，itisaectedbyfivevariables：pesticideuseprunitarea，chemicalferilizeruseperunitareaeffectie irigatedarea，andgrainandmeatyield.Inthelongterm，onlymeatproductionhasinsignificantimpactonagricultural modernization.Onthisbasis，sugestionswereputforwardtoincreaseinvestmentinscientificandtechnologicalinovationand development，deepenagriculturalpolicyreform，strengthenthetrainingofagriculturaltalents，andpromotetheintegrationof education and agriculture，which has provided theoretical support for Sichuan's agricultural modernization.

Keywords：agricultural modermization；VARmodel;percapitaagricultural machinerypower；co-integrationmodel;influencing factor

农业现代化作为提升生产力和保障粮食安全的核心路径，在全球化与科技驱动下面临多维转型。（剩余4833字）