青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人抑郁发生风险预测模型的构建及验证

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Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for depresson in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

WestHospitalof，61oo41 *Corresponding Author TANG Zhihong，E-mail： tzhihong@126.com

AbstractObjective：Toexplorethriskfactorsfordepresioninpatients withdolescentidopathiccoliosis.ToconstructNoogram predictionmodelandtoverifythepredictiveefectofthemodelMethods：Atotalof71patientswithadolescentidiopathicscoliosis admited toatertiarygradeAhospialfroMarchtoAugust2O24 wereselectedastheresearchsubjects，nddividedintothemodeling group（532 cases） and the validation group（178 cases） at a ratio of 3：1 .The patients in the modeling group were divided into two groups： thosewithdepressandoseioutepressoasedoetrteeveloddepresonotLgisticgressionadto analyzetheriskfactorsforepresion，stablishapredictivemodel，anddrawaNomogam.Thedscrimnationandcalibatioofthe modelwereevaluatedbytheareaunderthereceiveroperatingcharacteritic（ROC）curveandtheHosmerLemeshowgoodnessoffttest. Results： The incidence of depression in 532 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients in the modeling group was 35.5% . Finally， six variableswerescrenedoutandariskpredictionmodelfordepressonwasconstructedTheareasundertheROCcurvesofthisodelin themodelinggroupndthevalidationgroupwereO.978and.964respectively，ndicatinggooddiscrimination.TheHosmerLemeshow godnessof-fitstsowedgoodcalibratiConcusios：honstructediskpredictionmodelfdepressoninadolescntopathic scoliosispatientsoud predicttheoccureeofdepressoninadolesentidiopathicoliosispatientsuite well.Anditouldpovide reference for the timely adoption of preventive intervention measures.

Keywords idiopathic scoliosis; teenagers; depression; influencing factors; predictive model

摘要目的：探讨青少年特发性脊柱侧弯病人发生抑郁的危险因素，构建列线图预测模型并验证模型的预测效果。（剩余11460字）