我国老年人抑郁风险预测模型的构建

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Construction of risk prediction model of depression in the elderly in China

LIU Shulian1， ZHANG Yujing1， ZHAO Peiwen1， ZHANG Jina2*， GUO Yaming3

1.Luoyang Polytechnic， Henan 471000 China；2.Henan Medical College；3.Henan Rongkang Hospital

*Corresponding Author  ZHANG Jina， E⁃mail： 1043648539@qq.com

Abstract  Objective：To construct a risk prediction model of depression in the elderly using the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS） in 2020.Methods：The study data were collected from the CHARLS 2020 national survey.A total of 901 elderly people were selected according to inclusion and exclusion criteria.The variables included demographic information，health status，function and working status.The risk prediction model was constructed based on Logistic regression.And the prediction performance of the model was evaluated by accuracy，sensitivity，specificity，area under receiver operating characteristic curve and other indicators.Results：The detection rate of depressive symptoms in 901 elderly patients was 36.51%.Logistic regression analysis showed that outpatient service utilization，whether to nap，whether to use the Internet，life satisfaction，children satisfaction，gender，education level，self⁃rated health status，sleep duration were the key influencing factors of depression in the elderly（P<0.05）.Conclusions：The constructed risk prediction model of depression in the elderly had good predictive performance.The Nomogram of depression risk based on the model results can better screen out the high⁃risk elderly patients with depression risk，which can be used to guide the gerontological nursing practice.

Keywords  the elderly; depression; risk prediction model; Nomogram; secondary prevention; influencing factors

摘要  目的：应用中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）2020年全国调查数据，构建老年人抑郁风险预测模型。（剩余7236字）