碳达峰背景下河南省物流业碳排放预测及影响因素研究

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中图分类号：F259.27 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.12.002

Abstract：AlongwiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy，itsenvironmentalproblemshavegraduallatractedgreat attention.HenanProvince，asanimportantpartoftheCentralPlainsregion，itscarbonemisionsfromthelogisticsindustryare increasingyearbyyearbringinggreatchalengestoHenan'sgrenandhealthydevelopmentmodel，soitisofgreatsigniicance tocarryoutastudyonthepredictionofcarbonemisionsfromthelogisticsindustryinHenanProvinceandthefactorsffecting themforthehigh-qualitydevelopmentof HenanProvince.Inthisstudythetotalcarbonemissionsofthelogisticsindustryare obtainedthroughthetotalcarbonemisionsformula，predictedwiththehelpofBPNeuralNetwork，andSTIRPATmodelis introducedtodecomposethetotalcarbonemisionsofthelogisticsindustryintothefactorsofpopulationsize，economiclevel， energyintensity，energystructureandindustriallevel，andthelikeforempiricalanalyses.Theresultsofthestudyareas follows.WiththehelpofBPNeuralNetwork，thetotalcarbonemisionoflogisticsindustryinHenanProvinceispredictedto notreachthepeak in2O3Oandshows anupwardtrend;thefivefactorsof ppulationsize，economic level，energyintensity，nergy structurendindustriallevelhvepositivecorelationtothetotalcarbonemissonofhelogisticsindustryinHenanProvince andhaveapositiveroleinpromotingit.Therefore，inordertoachievedual-carbongoalsandpromotethehealthyandsustainable developmentof HenanProvince，itisproposedthatmacro-controlshouldbeimplementedtoformulate thedevelopmentstrategy oflow-carbonlogsticsindustry，regulatethepopulationsizetooptimizethepopulationmanagement，andpromotethestructural adjustment of the logistics industry to optimize the upgrading of the logistics industry.

KeyWords：carbon peaking;carbonemision from logistics industryin Henan Province;BPNeural Network;STRPATmodel

0引言

伴随着全球气候变化问题日益突出及全球温室气体排放量持续增加，气候变化对人类社会及生态环境造成了严重的影响。（剩余6470字）