浙江省百山祖冷杉适生区对气候变化的响应

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关键词潜在适生区;最大熵（MaxEnt）模型；百山祖冷杉；气候变化；空间格局变化

中图分类号S718.45文献标识码A

文章编号 0517-6611（2025）17-0098-05

doi： 10. 3969/j. issn. 0517-6611. 2025. 17. 023

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Response of Abies beshanzuensis Suitable Habitatto Climate Change in Zhejiang Province

LI Min，LIUJin-ln，GAOChang-janetal（ZejangForestrySurvey，PlaingandDesignCo.，Ld.，Hangzou，Zhejang0） AbstractUsingtheMaxEntmodel，thisstudypredictedandanalyedAieseshanzuensispotentialsuitablehabitatundercurrntanfuture climatescenarios（SP6adSP85）Thesultsevealedtatkeyenviomentalfactors，cudigtemperatureseasoalityio4）， cipiationofteettoth）ndpipiatiseasalityio），laucialoleidtegitsstrbutioUdfte climatescearos，allsableisredskigiftlyspllydtisa） the area of highly suitable habitat decreases from 0.80×104km2 at present to 0.14×104km2 by 2090，remaining only in core regions of ZhejiangProvinceentrodalysisidatedtatdertelesionseariotablebiatssiftouteastad，ileder misionscenario，theyretreatsouthwestward.The study highlights that climate change posesa major threat to the survival of A . beshanzuensis ， emphasizingthedtproiteproteofistighiglsitablebiatstrengnologicalstorafotsdlt management measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure the long-term conservation of this species.

Key WordsPotential suitable habitat;MaxEnt model;Abies beshanzuensis;Climate change;Spatial patern dynamics

气候变化已成为生物多样性面临的主要威胁之一。（剩余11033字）