1960一2023年济源市极端降水事件特征分析

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中图分类号：P426.614 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）18-0096-07

DOI： 10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.18.017

Characteristics Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Events in Jiyuan from 1960 to2023

LIU Heng （Jiyuan Meteorological Service，Jiyuan459ooo，China）

Abstract： [Purposes] This study investigates the variation characteristics，future trends，and cyclical patterns of extreme precipitation events in Jiyuan over the past 64 years，aiming to enhance the understanding of climate change and provide a scientific basis for improving the forecasting capability of extreme precipitation.[Methods] Basedon the daily precipitation data from 196O to 2023 in Jiyuan，the extreme precipitation thresholds for the summer and winter half-years were determined using the percentile method.Various indices of extreme precipitation events were analyzed by applying linear regression analysis，t-test，R/S analysis，and Morlet wavelet analysis.[Findings] The extreme precipitation amount and extreme precipitation days in the summer half-year increased insignificantly at rates of 5.2 mm/10 a and 0.16d/10 a，respectively，with their contribution rates increasing by 0.9% and 0.2% per decade. In the winter half-year，the extreme precipitation amount and extreme precipitation days decreased insignificantly at rates of 2.5mm/10 a and 0.12d/10 a，respectively，while their contribution rates decreased insignificantly by 0.4% and 0.1% per decade. The intensity of extreme precipitation in the summer and winterhalf-yearsdecreased insignificantlyatratesof 1.5mm/d per decade and O.7 mm/d per decade， respectively.[Conclusions] The increasing trend in the contribution rate of extreme precipitation days during the summer half-year is projected to change in the future. Other precipitation indicators exhibit longterm persistence and are expected to maintain their previous increasing or decreasing trends.Significant cyclical variations are observed in both the extreme precipitation amount and precipitation days during the summer and winter half-years，with nested structures identified across multiple time scales.

Keywords： extreme precipitation; trend; R/S analysis; Morlet wavelet analysis

0 引言

极端天气事件是指一定区域和时段发生的超出一定阈值的异常气候极端值，其发生概率小，风险高，且预报难度较大[1。（剩余6160字）