凤阳暖冬气候特征分析

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关键词暖冬；冬季气候变化；Mann-Kendall检验;相关性分析

中图分类号P467 文献标识码A 文章编号 1007-7731（2025）17-0109-06

DOI号 10.16377/j.cnki.issn1007-7731.2025.17.027

Analysis of warm winter climate characteristics in Fengyang County

YUAN Xuesuo WU JinxiangWANG Gang GUO Yang （Fengyang Meteorological Bureau，Fengyang 2331Oo， China）

AbstractThe characteristics of warm winters over the past 67 years in the study area were analyzed based on meteorologicalobservationdatafromtheFengyang National Basic Meteorological StationinAnhui，China，from1957to 2023，including winter average temperature （T） ，average maximum temperature （MTh），and average minimum temperature （MTe）.Methodssuchascorrelationcoeffientanalysis，Mann-Kendalltest，and linear trend estmation were employed.Theresults indicatethatthe winteraverage temperaturesforstrong warm，warm，normal，andcold winter types in the study area were 4.3-4.7°C， 3.2-4.2∘C ， ，and ，respectively. Correlation analysis revealedthatsunshine duration （S）wasnegativelycorelatedwith MTeandprecipitation （R），with correlatin coeffcients of-0.471and-O.647，respectively，while most other climatic elements showed positive correlations.The Mann-Kendalltrend and abrupt change tests demonstrated that from 1957 to 2O23，winter T，MTh，MTe，and R in the studyarea exhibited significant increasing trends，whereas S showed a significant decreasing trend. Except for Th abruptchanges were detected in all other climatic elements.Lineartrend estimation indicated thatthe climatic tendency rates for winter T ， R ，and S were 0.166∘C/10 a， 8.106mm/10 a， and -16.939 h/10 a， respectively. The findings provide a meteorological reference for agricultural production.

Keywords warm winter; winter climate change; Mann-Kendall test; correlation analysis

暖冬是指冬季平均气温高于气候平均值的气候现象，对农业、生态以及经济等有直接或间接影响，不同区域暖冬气候特征的研究逐渐成为研究人员的关注热点。（剩余5267字）