农村社区养老模式选择的实证分析

——基于社会养老和家庭养老的比较

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关键词：农村社区；社会养老；家庭养老；Probit模型中图分类号：F323 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0488-5368（2025）07-0118-07

Empirical Analysis of Old -age Model Selection in Rural Community -A Comparative Study of Family -Based and Social - Based Support

HE Zhiwu’，JI Qiaojuan （1.School ofEconomics and Management，Xi'an University，Xi'an，Shaanxi71O065，China; 2.Xi'an UrbanPlanningandDesignInstitute，Xi'an，Shaanxi 71oo82，China）

Abstract： This study conducts an empirical analysis of rural old -age care model preferences using the Probit model，based onsurvey data from 316 rural households in Qindu District，Xianyang City，Shaanxi Province.The findingsshow that thechoice between family-based and social-based care is influenced by educational attainment，individual income，living expenses，thequalityof relationships with children，andsatisfaction with rural community elderly services.In addition，the number of years spent working away from home and satisfaction with medical services under the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme significantlyafect the choice of social old-age support.The decision to rely on family-based care is further influenced byage，health status， traditional beliefs in filial piety，and the income of migrant children.Based on these findings，the study proposes enhancing the integration of family-based and social-based elderlycare，improving the educational level of rural residents，and strengthening the development of rural social care programs.

Key Words： Rural community； Family old -age support; Social old -age support; Probit model

随着我国经济的快速发展和社会结构的深刻变革，农村社区的养老问题日益凸显。（剩余7035字）