新型关联规则模型对PSA灰区前列腺癌的预测价值

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[Abstract]Objective：BycreatinganewassociationrulemodelbasedonclinicaldatasuchasProstate ImagingReporting andDataSystemversion2.1（PI-RADSV2.1）score，toevaluatetheeficiencyof themodelforpredictingprostatecancer（PCa） intheprostate-specificantigen（PSA）greyzone.Methods：Atotalof1OoOpatientswithprostatediseasewereretrospectively colected.Thepatientswererandomlydividedintoamodelinggroup（70cases）andavalidationgroup（30Ocases）.The asociationruleanalysiswasperformedontheclinicaldataofthemodelinggroup，takingtheclinicaldatasuchasPI-RADS V2.1scoreastheantecedentandCaastheconsequent，teefectivestrongasociationruleswerecalculatedandthepredictive model wascreated.Thecalibrationperformancewasasssedusing thecalibrationcurve.Internalvalidationwasalso performed.ROCcurvewasusedtoanalyzetheAUCofthemodelforpredictingPCa.Externalvalidationwasalsoperformed. Results：Thepredictionresultsof thenewasociationrule modelshowedthattheincidenceof PCawas79%whenPI-RADS V2.1 score ≥3points，age≥7Oyears，prostatevolume<50mL，andtotalPSA（tPSA）≥7ng/mL.Theinternal validationshowed thattheconcordanceindex（C-index）of the modelwasO.762（95%CI0.639-0.810），andtherewasagoodconsistency betweenthepredictedandobservedvaluesonthecalibrationcurve.TheAUCofthemodelforpredictingPCawas0.893， which washigherthanthePI-RADSV2.1score（0.831），age（0.686），prostatevolume（0.722），and tPSA（0.634）.Theexternal validationshowedthattheAUCofthemodelforpredictingPCainthevalidationgroupwasO.884.Theresultwasingod agreement with theROC curveof the modeling group，and thedifference was not statistically significant （ χ∠ =8.098，P>0.05）. ThepredictionperformanceofthemodelforPCaindiferentprostateregionscouldmettheclinicalrequirements.Conclusions： Thenewassociationrulemodelbasedon clinicaldatasuch asPI-RADSV2.1score shows favorableperformance in predicting PCa and has potential clinical application value.

[Keywords]Prostate Imaging ReportingandData Systemversion2.1;Assciationruleanalysis;Prostatespecificantigen; Greyarea;Prostatecancer;Forecast

前列腺癌是发生于前列腺上皮的恶性肿瘤，是男性泌尿生殖系统最常见的恶性肿瘤[1-3]。（剩余8462字）