2000一2022年环鄱阳湖城市群碳排放特征及其影响因素

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天键词：碳排放；时空变化；影响因素；LMDI模型;坏鄱阳湖城巾群

中图分类号：X24 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1003-5168（2025）19-0101-05

DOI：10.19968/j.cnki.hnkj.1003-5168.2025.19.020

Characteristics of Carbon Emissions and Its Influencing Factors during 2000—2022 in the Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake

YANG Yunsong （School of Economicsand Management，Nanchang Institute of Science & Technology，Nanchang 330013， China）

Abstract： [Purposes] Studying the characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissons in the Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration aims to provide support for the region's green and low-carbon development.[Methods] Based on analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions，the LMDI model was employed to decompose the factors influencing changes in carbon emissions.[Findings] Both total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions showed an increasing trend， while carbon emission intensity exhibited a decreasing trend.Within the urban agglomeration，Nanchang， Jiujiang，and Shangrao experienced relatively rapid growth in carbon emissions，while Jingdezhen，Yingtan，and Xinyu had smaller increases. In the same year， cities with higher carbon emissions were Nanchang， Jiujiang，

and Shangrao， whereas cities with lower carbon emissons were Jingdezhen， Yingtan，and Xinyu. Throughout the entire study period，the total efect on carbon emissions was consistently positive，indicating thatcarbon emissions were continuously increasing.Industrial intensity was the primary factor inhibiting the increase in carbon emissions.Economic development was the dominant factor promoting the increase in carbon emissions.The effect of population size was minimal.The industrial structure effect showed no stable trend.Fiscal policy，in most years，promoted carbon emissions，but it was not a major contributing factor.[Conclusions] Influenced by industrial intensity， economic development， population scale，industrial structure，and fiscal policy，carbon emissions in thePoyang Lake Urban Agglomeration maintained a growth trend.However，the contributions of these factors varied.Therefore，future efforts should focus on controlling the key factors driving the increase in carbon emissions.

Keywords： carbon emissions; spatiotemporal variation; influencing factors; LMDI model; Poyang Lake Urban Agglomeration

0 引言

全球气候变暖已成为人类面临的挑战之一。（剩余3694字）