中国天然气储气库价值评价研究
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中图分类号：TE822；P618.13 文献标志码：A 文章编号：2095-1329（2025）03-0035-08
Abstract：Againstthebackdropoftheadvancementofthe“dualcarbon”policyandthedepeningofmarket-orientedreforms，the strategicalueofnaturalgasstoragefaclitiesinChinahasbecomeincreasinglyprominent.However，thecurrentevaluationetods havesignificantshortcomings：rditioaltaticmodelsstruggletodsstheintesifngcyclicalpricefuctuationsandtecoplex interplaybetweepolicandmarketdamisfilingtaccuratelyefct teirdamicvalue.Todstis，tisparprosan inovativemethodcombininghistorical pricediferentialswitheverserecursion.Thismethodisbasedonnaturalgasspotpricedata fromtheCentral Chinaregionforthepriod2O22025.Itreplaces forwardpriceforecasts withthehistoricalwinter-summerprice spreadfuctuatioratioduciglcenigfquencytrasactiodata.ditioalymplosverseecusietiti for ulti-stageijectioandproductiondcisions，incoporatingparameterdesignforteweightedaveragecostofcapital（WACC）nd policyrisk premiumtobalancecurentlow-marketizationconditios withfuturerefomrequirements.EmpircalrsearchontheJianghan Salt Cavern Storage Facility validated the effectivenessof this method：the valuation result was 41.043 bilion yuana 45.1% increase overthe28.294bllonanfromthetradiionalnetpresetvauemetd，orefullyfectigitspeak-shvingvaueuingtheinter peakload inCentralCa.edaicasssetrameokostructedintisdyithitseciso-mainglogicndeter mechanisms，providesthoreticalsupportforimproingtheaturalgaspricefoatiomechanism，promotingthommercialoation of gas storagefacilities，andenhancingthescientifcbasisofinvestment decisions，therebycontributingtotheestablishmentofagas storage facility value evaluation system tailored to China's national conditions.
Key words： underground gas storage; gas storage reservoir; value assessment; value evaluation model
天然气作为世界能源体系的关键组成部分，具有不可替代的重要地位。（剩余13431字）
