基于PLUS-InVEST模型的濮阳市土地利用变化与碳储量评估

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关键词：碳储量；土地利用；PLUS-InVEST模型；濮阳市中图分类号：TP79；X171.1 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.08.023引用格式：，，，等.基于PLUS-InVEST 模型的濮阳市土地利用变化与碳储量评估［J].人民黄河，2025，47（8） ：140-145.

Assessment of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Puyang City Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

LI Jiafan 1，2 ，FU Hao³， ZHANG Panyue³， ZHANG Guangming1， Guo Ruili 4 （20 （1.SchoolofEnergyandEnvironmentEnginering，HebeiUniversityofTechnology，Tianjin3O0401，China；2.NationalJoint Research CenterforEcological Conservationand High Quality Development of the Yelow River Basin，Beijing 10o012，China;

3.School of Environmental Science& Engineering，Beijing Forestry University，Beijing 1OOo84，China;

4.Puyang City Ecological Environment Monitoring and Security Center，Puyang 457Ooo，China）

Abstract：Landusechangeisoneof he mainfactorscausingchanges incarbonstocks.BasedonthelandusedataofPuyangCityfrom2010 to 2020，thePLUS-InVSETmodelwasusedtopredictthespatialandtemporalchangesilandusetypesandcarbonstorageinPuyangCity by035underthefoursenariosofaturalevelopent，onomicdevelopment，farandprotectionandordinateddevelopntee sultsshowthatthemainlandusetypesinPuyangCityfrom2O10toOOareculivatedlandandconstructionland，andthereisacotiuous decreaseincarbonstoragewitinPuyangCityWhencomparingwithcarbonstoragelevelsinO2O，tisoservedtatundernatraldevelop mentscenarios，thereisasignificantdecreaseincarbonstorage，however，undercoperativecultivatedlandprotectionsenarios，an increasencarbonstorageisnoted.Carbonstoragechangesofcloselyrelatedtochangesoflandusetypes，andcarbonstoragechangeshen land use types shift.

Key words：carbon storage；land use；PLUS-InVEST Model;Puyang City

土地利用变化是引起碳储量变化的主要因素之一，土地利用通过改变生态系统结构影响碳储量在碳循环等方面发挥着重要作用[2-3]，因此基于土地利用变化预测不同情景下区域未来碳储量变化，对于优化区域国土空间格局、落实“双碳”战略目标具有重要意义[4-5] 。（剩余8468字）