基于随机森林模型的祖厉河流域水沙模拟及归因分析

打开文本图片集

关键词：随机森林；水沙模拟；归因分析；祖厉河中图分类号：TV214 文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.08.015用格式：，，，等.基于随机森林模型的祖厉河流域水沙模拟及归因分析[J].人民黄河，2025，47（8）：90-95.

Simulation and Attribution Analysis of Sediment and Water in the Zuli River Basin Based on Random Forest Model

LIANG Lixia’， SONG Zheng²， ZHANG Zhongyang³，WANG Yibo³ （1.GansuWaterCoservancyUnion，Lanzhou73ooo，China;2.GansuHydrologyandWaterResourcesCenter，Lanzhou， China；3.Colge of Earth and Environmental Sciences，Lanzhou University，Lanzhou 73Oooo，China）

Abstract：Basedonherandomforestmodelandutilngthesimentandwaterprocessdataaselscmaticmeasureentdatafromfour typicalhydrologalatiosineZuliiveBsinfrolt，thisstudyonducedthesiulatiodtrbutioaalysftdy namiccharacteritisofsedimentandwaterprocesatthbasinsale.Thsultssothattheadomforestodelhasgodlcability forsedimentand watersimulationinthe Zuli River Basin，with high simulationaccuracyandaNash-SutclifeEfciency（ NsE ） greater than 0.5forthevastmajorityofstations，utthesimulationofdatapeaksisrelativelypoor.Duringtheperiodfrom2Oolto2O2O，thecliaten theZuliRiversigealledtrndowasgdiceadudityihoralineasitrdidde creasingtrendinaalsdimenttrasprtFromOtoO，thechangsinunofinteZuliRiverBasinaeprimarilyifuencedbyclmate change，with a contribution rate of 197.59% ；whereas the changes in sediment are mainly reduced due to human activities，with a contribution rate of 162.46% ：

KeyWords：random forest；sediment and water simulation；attribution analysis；Zuli Rivei

0 引言

河流不仅是地表径流的通道，而且承担着泥沙溶质的输送，对降水、气候有着显著的反馈作用，对流域水文过程和水资源储量有着重要意义[1]。（剩余8647字）