原发性喉癌病人手术预后的LASSO-Cox回归分析及列线图预测模型构建

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[中图分类号]R739.65；R449 [文献标志码］A [文章编号] 2096-5532（2025）05-0722-05doi：10.11712/jms.2096-5532.2025.61.172 [开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）][网络出版]https：//link.cnki.net/urlid/37.1517.R.20251126.1148.004; 2025-11-2616：41：37

ALASSO-Coxregresioanalysisofthesurgicalprognosisofpatientswithprimarylarygealcancerandestablishmentofanomogam prediction modelSUN Yanmin ， DONG Yan，HAO Xuerui， WANG Jun（Departmentof Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery，Xijing Hospital，the First Afiliated Hospitalof Air Force Medical University，Xi'an 71oo32，China）

[Abstract]ObjectiveToinvestigatetheinfluencingfactors fortheprognosisofpatients withprimarylaryngealcancerafter surgery basedonLASSO-Coxregresion，andtoestablishanomogram prediction model.MethodsClinicaldata werecoleted from355 patientswith primarylaryngealcancer whounderwentsurgicaltreatmentin TheFirst Afiliated Hospitalof AirForce MedicalUniversityfromFebruary0l7toAugust2O19，andthepatients wererandomlydividedintoamodelingset（213patients） and a validation set（l42 patients）at a ratio of 3：2 .The patients were followed up for 5 years after surgery.Related clinical data werecolected，andtheLASSO-Coxregresionanalysis wasusedtoidentifytheriskfactors forprognosisandestablishanomo gram model.ResultsThe 5-year mortality rate of 355 patients was 25.92% . The LASSO-Cox regression analysis showed that age >60 years，moderate or poor differentiation，clinical stage II-N ，and total laryngectomy were independent risk factors for death within 5 years after surgery （ P<0.05） . The nomogram model had an area under the ROC curve of O.856 in the modeling set and0.773inthevalidationsetforpredictingdeathwithin5yearsafter.Thecalibrationcurveshowedthatthepredictedriskofthe model wasbasicallyconsistent withtheactualrisk，andthedecisioncurveanalysisshowedthatthemodelhadsignificantclinical benefits.ConclusionAge，degreeoftumordiferentiation，clinicalstage，andtotallaryngectomyareinfluencingfactorsforthe prognosis of patientswith primarylaryngealcancer，and thenomogram modelestablished basedonthesefactors hasagood predictive value.

[Key words] laryngeal neoplasms；prognosis；LASSO-Cox regression；nomogram

原发性喉癌是头颈部常见的恶性肿瘤，近年来发病率上升，严重影响病人生活质量和生命安全]。（剩余7804字）