湖北省农业科技进步贡献率测算与预测

——基于索洛增长模型与回归分析法的研究

打开文本图片集

关键词：农业科技进步贡献率；索洛增长模型；回归分析法；发展特征；提升策略；湖北省中图分类号：F323.3 文献标识码：A文章编号：0439-8114（2025）11-0203-07DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2025.11.028开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：i

Measurement and forecasting of the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hubei Province：Based on the study of Solow growth model and regression analysis method

CHENWen-hui1，LYUHao-yun²，WEIZhi-heng1

（1.HubeiProvcialAgclturalieeadchologalentOfce，Wuhan4，ha;2.WuhanUnivsityuhana）

Abstract：Inodertosientificallyuderstandteoleofscienceandtecnologprogessinthedevelopmentofgiculturaloy， thecontributionrateofagriculturalscienceandtechologyprogressinHubeiProvinceasmeasuredandanalyzedinO23basedon theSolowgrowthmodelandregresioaalysisetod，andtecotributionrateofagriculturalsietficndtechnologicalpress inHubeiProvincewasforecasted in2024，2O25and2O26.Theresultsshowedthatthecontributionateofagriculturalscienceand technologyprogesinHubeiProvinecontinuedtoaintainanupwardtrnd，evealingdevelopmentalcharacteristicssuchsalarge gapinthehozontalcomparison，adcliningtrendinthemarginalcompensationofagriculturalmaterialiputs，andegativegrowth inthecontributioateoflaborandlandelements.Indertopromotethecontrbutionateofagriculturalsienceandtechnologyrogresstocontinuetogrowsteadily，countermeasuresandsuggestionswreputforwardifiveaspects，namely，cultivatingagricultural newqualityproductivity，mprovingagriculturalscientificandtchnologicalachievementstransformationmechanism，strengthing constructionofagriculturalechnologypromotionteam，xpandingtheteamofnew-typefarmers，andincreasingagriculturalsientific and technological innovation capital investment.

Keywords：contrutionateofagriculturalscienceandtechologyprogress；Solowgrowthmodel;regressonanalysismethod;development characteristics；enhancement strategy；Hubei Province

农业科技进步贡献率是指农业经济增长量中农业科技占经济增长量的比例，即农业科技进步对农业总产值增长率的贡献份额[1]。（剩余9917字）