中国房价未来走势与房地产调控政策效果

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中图分类号：F832 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1004-0714（2025）06-0061-06

The FutureTrendof Housing Prices in Chinaand the Efectiveness of Real Estate Regulatory Policies

YANGJihail，TAN Zhengxun （1Businss Guangdong，China）

Abstract：Based on a fractional cointegration vector autoregressive （FCvAR） model，this study decomposes thetrendand cyclical components of housing prices in Chinatopredict future pricetrends and analyzes the effectiveness of regulatory policies usinga moderation effect model.The results indicate that economic growth，demographic dividends，and supply-demand gaps arethedominant factorsinfluencingithe long-term trend of housing prices Chin Using2012as adividing point，the priceincreases in the earlier period wereprimarilydrivenbythese fundamental factors .However，inthelaterpeniod，especiallyafterSeptember 2016，theprice increases were mainlydue tocyclicalcomponents.Thedownwardadjustment of/housing prices since2021 has been largely caused bya significant declineinithe cyclicalcomponents，withasubstantial slowdowninthegrowthrateofthetrendcomponents.Theexpectationofhousingpricesisthekeyfactorcausingthecyclical component deviate romthetrend components However， regardingtheeffectivenessof real estate regulation，we did not find evidence supporting the phenomenon of the moreregulation，the higher the prices，" which contrasts withthe conclusions of existing literature.Prior to this adjustment， housing prices hadalready surged significantly primarily driveniby the rapid rise in cyclical components. Additionally，current fundamental factorsare facing adverse impacts，leading to significant changes in housingprice expectations.Therefore，the current downwardadjustment of housing pricesisexpected to con tinue.Itis not onlynecessry butalsoessential tomaintainthecontinuityofregulatorypolicies tomitigate pessimistic expectations and prevent potential excessive declines in housing prices and their associatedrisks.

Keywords：Housing PriceTrends;Trend and Cycle Decomposition; Housing Price Expectations;Moderating Effect

一、引言

2021年以来，房价下行、房地产市场交易萎缩，特别是郑州等城市在2017年起房价就出现了下跌、房地产开发投资和商品房销售面积大幅下滑的现象。（剩余8564字）