气候变化背景下青藏高原特有属固沙草属物种 潜在适生区预测

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关键词：固沙草属；气候变化；潜在适生区；MaxEnt模型中图分类号：Q948 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2026）04-1430-13

Abstract：This study aimed to clarify the potential suitable habitats of three Orinus species， including O . thoroldii， O . kokonoricus and O . intermedius，under the background of climate change.Based on the data of species distribution records and climate variables，MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were applied to conduct spatial simulation and prediction of three Orinus species. The results showed that the predictive accuracy was high （AUC > 0.95）. The key environmental factor influencing habitat suitability was altitude for O . thoroldii，the mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the main factor for O . kokonoricus，while the mean diurnal temperature range was the key one for O .intermedius.From the Last Interglacial to the Mid-Holocene，the suitable area for O . thoroldii and O ，kokonoricus decreased，while that for O .intermedius increased. Under the future climate scenarios，the suitable area of O .thoroldiiand O . kokonoricus showed an initial increase followed by a decrease，whereas the opposite trend was observed for O .intermedius. Currently，the high suitable area of O thoroldii was mainly located in the southwest of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau， that of O . kokonoricus was in the east of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau，while that of O .intermedius was in the central part and northeast of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. We thought that the high suitable habitat of Orinus species was in the southwest， east， northeast and central parts of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. It is suggested to strengthen in situ protection to cope with the pressure brought by future climate change.

Key words：Orinus;Climate change;Potential suitable habitat;MaxEnt model

全球气候变化直接影响物种的栖息环境，如生态系统结构和功能[1]植物物候[2]水热环境[3]等，进而对植物的地理分布格局造成深刻影响[4]。（剩余23240字）