气候变化对伊犁河谷5种草原毒害草发生趋势的影响

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：S812.6 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-0435（2026）04-1413-17

Abstract：To clarify the occurrence trends of poisonous weeds in grasslands under future climate change，and to scientifically prevent their spread and reduce economic losses in the livestock industry，this study based on the distribution data offive frequently occurring grassland poisonous weeds in the Ili River Valley： Sophora alopecuroides，Aconitum leucostomum，Xanthium spinosum，Rumex thianschanicus，and Peganum harmala-and combined with 55 influencing factors，employed the Maximum Entropy model to explore the impactof climate change on the occurence trends of these five grassand poisonous weeds.The results showed that the prediction models for the five grassland poisonous weeds all had an accuracy greater than O.8，indicating high precision. Under four future climate scenarios，the total potential occurrence area of Aconitum leucostomum decreased， whilethat of the other four grassand poisonous weeds increased.Under the medium-to-high emission scenario （SSP370），grassland poisonous weeds were more prone to expansion and posed greater risks. In terms of migration direction，in the future，Aconitum leucostomum，Rumex thianschanicus，and Peganum harmala would mainly migrate southward， Sophora alopecuroides would migrate eastward，and Xanthium spinosum

Would migrate toward the southeast and northeast， with an overal trend of grassland poisonous weeds migrating toward lower latitudes.Under the four future climate scenarios，the area of overlapping zones for multiple grassland poisonous weed species increased，with the largest overlapping area occuring under the high-emission scenario （SSP585）. In conclusion，continuous increases in carbon emissions willexacerbate the spread and harm of grassland poisonous weeds.

Key words：Grassland poisonous weed;MaxEnt model;Trend analysis

气候是决定植物生长发育及空间分布的主要非生物因素1，也是草地生态系统的重要影响因子之一，可直接影响草地覆盖度及生物量[2-3]。（剩余23808字）