基于探索性因子分析的高原山区高速公路事故致因耦合机制研究

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Research on the Coupling Mechanism of Accident Causes on High-altitude Mountainous Expressways Based on Exploratory Factor Analysis

Yang QixialHe Chao1，2 1.Southwest Forestry University，Kunming 650224，China 2.DehongVocational College，Mangshi678400，China

Abstract：Toreveal themult-factorcouplingcausationmechanismofhighwayacidentsintheplateau mountainousareasofYunnanProvince，basedon1863accidentdatafrom013to2023，avariablesystemincludinginteractiontermswasconstructedfromthe "human-vehicle-road-environment"system，andexploratoryfactoranalysis（EFA）wasusedfordimensionreduction.Sixkeyrisk factors wereextracted，with the top three weights being：the interaction factor ofconstruction and rainy days （ 16.48% ），the factor of missing fog zone protection （ 14.65% ），and the risk factor of heavy truck operation （ 12.99% ）. The results show that the compound scenarios such as“construction + rainy days”and“foggy days + no protection”have the most prominent risks.The study reveals the system couplingdisasterpatenofaidents，hichanprovideabasisforprecisepreventionandcontrolofg-rsksections.Thedentified risk factor of heavy trucks especially provides key decision support for vehicle safety management and design.

KeyWords：Plateauandmountainousareas;Trafficaccidents;Causativefactoranalysis;Exploratoryfactoranalysis;；Human-vehicle-road-environment system

1前言

道路交通事故是全球面临的重大公共健康问题，其致因机理复杂，一直是交通安全领域研究的核心课题[1]。（剩余5862字）