基于ARIMA模型的扬州港口货物吞吐量预测

打开文本图片集

中图分类号：F552 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.08.022

Abstract： Withthecontinuous advancement of global economic integration，ports，servingas thecrucial pilarof domesticand internationallogistics，aregraduallyevolvingtowardsamoreinteligentandrefiedoperationalmodeinthefaceofintensearket competition.Asakeyindicatorforevaluatingtheproductionandoperationalactivitiesofenterprises，thepredictinoftohut' futuredataholdssgnificantimportancefortheformulationofinvestmentplaninganddevelopmentstrategiesofenterprises.Hence， theprecisepredictionofortcargothroughputofersavitalscientificbasisforportlgisticsdevelopmentplanning.TakingYaghou Portasanexaplethisatallyodctssriptivestatialaalstoelasatioarityttnddeltote dataof Yangzhou Portfrom20o9 to023，andultimatelydetermines theARIMAmodel.Subsequently，the modelisemployed to forecasttheportcargothroughputfrom2O24to2025.Thevisualizationandstatisticalresultsdemonstratethatthemodelfitswel， providing a reference for relevant personnel and managers.

Key words： cargo throughput prediction; ARIMA; time series model; Yangzhou Port

0引言

随着全球经济一体化的不断发展，港口作为连接国内外市场的重要节点，其货物吞吐量直接关系到国家和地区的经济发展。（剩余3868字）