基于组合预测的港口集装箱吞吐量分析

——以东亚主要港口为例

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中图分类号：F552 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.08.004

Abstract：Intheprocesofportdevelopmentandconstruction，throughutisanimportanteference.Scientificandaccurateprdition of portthroughputchanges isofgreatsignificanceforaceleratiglgisticsandsuplychainmanagementandregionalcoopration.In this paperepresetativedomsticortofinJpanandSouthKoreatheportpowersinEastAsiaaretaknasseachet First，thre singlefecastigmoels，G（，dadaticpotialsogeod，aedteastete containerthroughuttrendofthethreeports，andthenforacombinedforecastingmodeltroughweightalocation.Tesultsshow thatcomparedwithtesingleforecastingmodel，thecombiedforecastingmodelreducesteforecastigerorandhashighecuacyTe forecasting resultsasoprovideacertainreferenceforthefuture developmenttrendandconstruction directionofthe thre ports. Key Words： container throughput; AR IMA; GM（1，1）; quadratic exponentialsmoothing method; combined forecasting

0引言

港口是全球贸易中不可或缺的一环，大多数国际贸易依赖海运完成，港口作为货物的集散地，对腹地城市有着深远的影响，对全球供应链也至关重要，而港口吞吐量是反映港口生产经营活动成果的重要数量指标，对港口货物吞吐量的合理预测是进行港口物流规划与建设的关键部分，也是展开港口区域合作的重要参考[1-2]。（剩余11341字）