基于BP神经网络的地震应急物资需求预测研究

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中图分类号：F251 文献标志码：A DOI： 10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2025.08.012

Abstract： Accurate predictionof emergencymaterial demand is crucial for enhancing China's earthquake emergencyrescue capabilities.Byconstructinga prediction model basedon the Back Propagation Neural Network，this study selects earthquake magnitude，tieinethethquakeicetertesityisicortiicationlevelartquakefrecastingopuatiosity andaectedareaasinputlayereuronswiththefectedpopulationasteoutputlayerneuron，achievingprecisepredictionof earthquakecasualties.Furthermore，byintegratingtherelationshipetweenthenumberofaffectedpeopleandthematerialdemand， thedemandforcriticalemergencymaterals（suchasdrinkingwaterandclothing）afteranearthquakeisestimated.Troughepiical analysis，teefectivenessand practicalityofthis modelinpredictingtheafected populationandemergencymaterialdeandare verified.

Key Words：earthquake prediction;Back Propagation Neural Network; emergency material demand prediction

地震灾害作为自然界中较为严重的自然灾害之一，其频繁发生对人类社会造成了巨大的破坏和深远的影响。（剩余6144字）