滑坡稳定性可靠度及岩土参数敏感性研究

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Study on Landslide Stability Reliability and Parameter Sensitivity胡文奎'，薛明华'，刘卫卫'，鹿传磊2，3

（1．济南市勘察测绘研究院，济南250101；2．中国地质调查局哈尔滨自然资源综合调查中心，哈尔滨150081；3．自然资源部哈尔滨黑土地地球关键带野外科学观测研究站，哈尔滨150086）

中图分类号：TU443 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1005-8249（2025）01-0156-07

DOI：10.19860/j.cnki.issn1005-8249.2025.01.029

HU Wenkui'，XUE Minghua’，LIU Weiwei'，LU Chuanlei2，3

(1. Ji'nan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Institute， Ji’nan 25O1O1， China；

2.Harbin Natural Resources Comprehensive Survev Center， China Geological Suvey，Harbin 15OO8l，China；

.Station of Earth Critical Zone in Black Soil of Harbin，Ministry of Natural Resources，Harbin 15O086，China) Abstract：Toenhancetherationalityof landslidestabilityanalysisandremediationstrategies，this studytakestheFengqing landslidein Yunan Provinceastheengineeringcontext.Thestabilitycoeffcientof the landslidewascalculatedusing the strengthreduction method，andthefailure probabiltywasanalyzedbasedon MonteCarlosimulationandreliabilitytheoryThe sensitivityof geotechnical parameters tothe stabilitycoeffcientandslopedisplacementwasassessedusing the Spearman coeffcient.TheresultsindicatethatthestabilitycoefcientofthelandslideisO.863．Aftercomprehensiveremediation involving "slope reduction，grid anchors，and drainage interception，" the failure probability was reduced to 1，6% ，stabilizing thelandslide.Thefourparameterswiththehighestsensitivitytothestabilitycoeficientaretheinteralfrictionangleoffuly weatheredsandstone，cohesion，cohesionofsityclay，and internalfrictionangle，whilethenaturalunit weightofsiltyclay andfullyweatheredsandstoneshows negativesensitivitytothestabilitycoeficient.Thisstudyprovidesareferenceforeliability analysis of landslide stability under similar engineering contexts.

KeyWords：reliability theory；landslides；stability coefficients；Monte Carlo simulation；landslide management

0 引言

滑坡是主要自然灾害之一，在全球范围内产生广泛的影响，并且对人类和社会造成了巨大的经济损失[1-3]。（剩余17239字）